Jul 2026 · Inflation Monitor · South Africa
South Africa's Middle-Income Inflation Monitor
Inflation for the Urban Middle Class (Deciles 4-7)
Section 1 · Headline snapshot
The middle-income inflation story this month
| Jul 2026 | Jun 2026 | Δ MoM Δ MoM — Month-on-Month change The percentage point change from month-to-month. | |
|---|---|---|---|
| PBC Middle-Income CPI CPI — Consumer Price Index Stats SA’s Consumer Price Index. The official measure of how much the prices of a representative basket of goods and services bought by South African households have changed over time. Published monthly by Stats SA. , Deciles 4-7 Deciles 4-7 Classification selected from Stats SA’s ten (10) deciles. See Methodology. ( % Yr YoY % — Year-on-Year change The percentage change in a price index compared with the same month one year ago. The standard way to read inflation. YoYₜ = (valueₜ ÷ valueₜ₋₁₂ − 1) × 100 ) | 3.5% | 4.1% | -0.6 ppt |
| National Headline CPI National Headline CPI Headline consumer price index (CPI) for all urban areas in South Africa. (% Yr) | 4.3% | 5.0% | -0.7 ppt |
| Middle-Income Premium ( ppt ppt — percentage points Percentage points — the arithmetic difference between two percentages. If inflation moves from 5.0% to 5.4%, that is +0.4 ppt — not +0.4%. ) | -0.8 ppt | -0.9 ppt | — |
- South Africa’s Middle‑Income Inflation Index (Deciles 4-7) cooled by 0.6 percentage points to 3.5% y/y, in July. National Headline CPI decelerated even more sharply, to 4.3% from 5.0%.
- The Middle-Income Premium — the gap between Middle-Income CPI and National Headline CPI — stabilised at -0.8 ppt, as fuel-intensive upper-income baskets continued to bear a heavier burden, even as fuel prices moderated during the month.
- The Middle-Class Squeeze Indicator (CNI minus NEI) narrowed significantly, by 1.0 ppt to 1.1 ppt, as the Core Necessities Index (CNI) cooled from 4.6% to 3.7% on broad‑based slowing across food, housing, and transport inflation, while the Non‑Essentials Index (NEI) remained relatively stable.
Long-run, % year-on-year
A. PBC Middle-Income CPI (Deciles 4–7) vs National Headline CPI
Section 2 · Sub-index breakdown · PBC Middle-Income CPI (D4–D7)
PBC Core Necessities Index (CNI)
PBC Core Necessities Index (CNI)
Food, Housing & Transport Inflation
CNI
4.6%
JUN 2026
JUN 2026
3.7%Yr
-1.0 ppt
JUL 2026
PBC Semi-Essentials Index (SEI)
PBC Semi-Essentials Index (SEI)
Health, Education & Insurance Inflation
SEI
5.4%
JUN 2026
JUN 2026
5.3%Yr
-0.1 ppt
JUL 2026
PBC Non-Essentials Index (NEI)
PBC Non-Essentials Index (NEI)
Covers non-essential / discretionary items
NEI
2.5%
JUN 2026
JUN 2026
2.6%Yr
+0.0 ppt
JUL 2026
- The moderation in our Core Necessities Index (CNI) — tracking food, housing, and transport — was driven by broad‑based slowing across food, housing, and transport inflation.
- Our Semi-Essentials Index (SEI) cooled marginally, by 0.1 ppt to 5.3% y/y, driven primarily by insurance inflation which slowed to 5.7% y/y from 5.9% y/y previously.
Section 3 · Middle-Income Squeeze Indicator
Essentials inflation outpaces non-essentials inflation
Squeeze indicator (CNI − NEI)
3.7%
−
2.6%
= +1.1 ppt
JUL 2026
Long-run, % year-on-year
C. The Middle-Class Squeeze Indicator (CNI − NEI)
Sources: Statistics South Africa. PBC calculations.
